11 February 2019 Monday TRADE COMMENTARY


Here’s a list of my current positions and outstanding (GTC) orders:

If you are new to this website, you can always look back at the newsletters and trade commentary posts to get background on any of these trades I have in progress.  My TRADE COMMENTARY posts usually contain some discussion of market fundamentals and trade strategies that I might be considering either in the short term or for later in the year.  TRADE COMMENTARY may be listed at any time, while posts marked NEWSLETTER usually have new positions or orders that I place along with some description and/or discussions on them.  All of this information is for educational purposes only; I cannot and do not determine if any trades are suitable for a reader, that is your individual choice and not my determination.  Thank you.

For Today’s EXISTING POSITIONS:  to to this link for Today’s Newsletter 


Note:  I always use examples with a quantity of 1 (one) option per trade.  This is not because I only trade one of each option, it is to keep the illustrations simple and easy to understand in the newsletter.  Please remember the strategies of the trades I post here are risky, and not suitable for all traders.  This is not a trade advisory service. Posts here are for educational purposes only.

Some call the first WASDE report since December a “dud.”

On Friday (08FEB19) the first (monthly) WASDE (World Ag Supply-Demand Estimates) since December was issued.  Realize that many producers (farmers) of the grains often eye these reports as holding potentially good news for them.  The JAN19 WASDE was missed due to the USA government shut-down.  It is quite natural for producers to want to see numbers in their favor; this was NOT the case. (I am rather tired of talking about WASDE too, actually.)  In fact many are calling this report a ‘non-event’ because there were no surprises, no major changes, and it gave little reason to adjust any of the price outlooks for corn or soybeans to change at all.

This means the outlook for corn prices is in line with usual seasonal patterns, which is bullish during the first half of the calendar year.  The outlook for soybeans remains neutral to bearish; the normal seasonal pattern is for higher prices in the first few months of the calendar year.

The video here has some comments on Crude and Gold.  I think these two are again ripe for more SHORT STRANGLES, and I’m already short CALLS of course – but I could be adding more short strangles in the next week or two.

I have decided NOT to trade any Silver options at this time.  I will explain more soon, but when I took a close look at the Silver options, I was not comfortable with the very small open interest of these options.

One other development in Crude Oil:  You’ve heard me talk that the USA is now the world’s largest producer, and since China is increasing oil imports from the world and USA, the United States is heading for a time coming up very soon where we export more oil than we import.   This has never happened in recent history.  In future months and years, this will improve the national deficit numbers for the USA.

Please visit the video below and have a great week.  Remember, patience is money! Thank you. – Don


The commentary and examples are for teaching purposes only and are not intended to be a trading or trade advisory service. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of  the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein on the web site and/or newsletter, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Trading with leverage could lead to greater loss than your initial deposit. Trade at your own risk.   Investors and traders are responsible for their own investment/trading decisions including entries, exits, position, sizing and  use of stops or lack thereof.  This is not a trade advisory service and is for educational purposes only.  The content on the pages here is believed to be reliable - but we cannot guarantee it.