TIME FARMING TRAINING BULLETIN newsletter:
17 January 2019 THURSDAY
Here are new trades I placed today:
Trade: Sell APR19 Crude Oil 35-strike PUT for 0.06 cents ($60)
Date placed: 17JAN19
Proceeds from option $60.00
Commission Fees: $3.75 per side Net Credit: $56.25
Probability option expires OTM: 97%
Buying Power effect: $0 (2nd Side of short strangle, no additional margin required.)
57 Days until expiration (14MAR2019)
Trade: Sell JUN19 Crude Oil 30-strike PUT for 0.08 cents
Date placed: 17JAN19
Proceeds from option $80.00
Commission Fees: $3.75 per side Net Credit: $76.25
Probability option expires OTM: 97%
Buying Power effect: $0 (2ND SIDE OF SHORT STRANGLE, NONE REQUIRED)
119 Days until expiration (15MAY2019)
Comment: Oil is showing some signs of finding a new range, but still volatility very possible, so I’m watching these closely. I was able to get strikes of 30 and 35 on the downside, in JUN19 and APR19 respectively – so that is some comfort (it seems so far OTM right now.) I’m holding off on selling GOLD PUTs right now. I could be wrong, but if the government shutdown is terminated in the next week or so, the stock market could zoom up a bit – that usually means gold might go down in price if that happens. Thus, I’m waiting to see before selling the PUTS. I will revisit this thinking everyday as I follow the events.
I want to short more Gold CALLs very soon; I’m shopping April – July at strikes 1600 and higher. Just a note: When a trader looks out six months and longer, always be very careful to make sure a strike has ample OI (open interests) in case it becomes necessary to exit, there should be enough volume and OI to complete that if necessary. Perhaps, I’ll say more about this in a trade commentary soon.
NOTICE: Due to the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King holiday on Monday, January 21st, 2019 – all markets are closed. I will publish the trade commentary on Tuesday next week instead of Monday due to the holiday.
Since I have posted crude oil charts recently, I didn’t deem it necessary to put more of them up here in this comment today.
My current positions as of today 17 JAN 2019 are:
Short the APR19 Crude Oil 70-strike CALL at 0.18 ($180)
Placed today: Short the APR19 Crude Oil 35-strike PUT at 0.06 ($60)
Short the JUN19 Crude Oil 70-strike CALL at 0.420 ($420)
Placed Today: Short the JUN19 Crude Oil 30-strike PUT at 0.08 ($80)
Expired worthless: position closed: Short the FEB19 Gold 1500-strike CALL at 0.70 ($70)
Short the APR19 Gold 1600-strike CALL at 0.60 ($60)
Short the MAY19 Corn 360-strike PUT at 3.375 ($168.25)
Should anyone decide to sell any crude oil PUTS, I would suggest you NOT be in a hurry. Prices the last few days have been up and down intraday. Someone asked me last week why I even bother selling some options was just a little premium (like the two I sold today.) In this case, no more margin is required, so my ROI will increase a little. I could have been more aggressive and not gone so far OTM, but with all the volatility lately (especially in energy), I wanted to play it safe with the 30 and 35 strikes.
Corn, the MAY2019 futures closed at 388.50 today, up 6.50. I haven’t been watching all the news today, I’ll check it tonight and see if there’s any progress on the China talks. I see the MAR19 soybeans were up 13 cents, at 907.50. It only takes a little optimism to spike these grain prices a little. The $US Dollar was steady today with almost no change. When the $US goes down, it often causes grain prices to go up, due to the fact that exchange rates with a lower dollar effectively make our (USA) exports cheaper to buyers. (The dollar is weaker and so costs less, etc.)
I think there will be some profits to be made this year in grains. I’ll be talking more about that in the coming weeks as the China/USA talks advance. Brazil and USA are the world largest soybean producers (by far), the USA exports to China of soybeans were down over 40% this year, and soybean stocks are abundant. The government shutdown has resulted in no economic agricultural reports on the grains right now. Soon the USDA will be doing surveys with farmers to try and determine the acres that will be planted for each corn and soybeans. Soybeans are cheaper to grow (less cash intensive) but if farmers can’t sell them this year, some acres would migrate to corn plantings. These coming USDA reports will reveal the extent of this some time this early Spring season (in North America.)
If you are new to the website and newsletter, please understand I post all my trades as 1 (one) option to illustrate my trades. What trades, if any, and what number of options of course varies trader to trader – and will depend on a trader’s funds, risk tolerance, experience, and market opinions of course – and there are other factors, such as dividing trades among different markets to spread the risks, etc.
That is all today. Unless I have any trades to post tomorrow on Friday – I’ll say have a safe and great holiday weekend to those of you in the United States. – Don
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If you have any questions about my trades or comments, just email me please: Don@WriteThisDown.com
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Don A. Singletary
The commentary and examples are for teaching purposes only and are not intended to be a trading or trade advisory service. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein on the web site and/or newsletter, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Trading with leverage could lead to greater loss than your initial deposit. Trade at your own risk. Investors and traders are responsible for their own investment/trading decisions including entries, exits, position, sizing and use of stops or lack thereof. This is not a trade advisory service and is for educational purposes only.
The commentary and examples are for teaching purposes only and are not intended to be a trading or trade advisory service. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein on the web site and/or newsletter, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Trading with leverage could lead to greater loss than your initial deposit. Trade at your own risk. Investors and traders are responsible for their own investment/trading decisions including entries, exits, position, sizing and use of stops or lack thereof. This is not a trade advisory service and is for educational purposes only. The content on the pages here is believed to be reliable - but we cannot guarantee it.