Greetings:
NEW TRADE TODAY: closing purchase NOV19 1100 and 1200 strike CALLS.
Soybeans: Beans are likely to follow the corn market up and that does not bode well for my short NOV19 short calls at both the 1100 and 1200 strikes. I feel I have little to gain by risking weather induced crop low yield and will exit these positions today. It will likely be possible to sell HIGHER strikes at a later date and at that time, I’ll have better information on plantings and crop conditions. I’ll put up a post later today or tomorrow with details. My logic is that it might become difficulty (too risky) told these positions and there are better positions available later.
To be clear: I am exiting both my NOV19 1100-strike and 1200 strike CALLS this morning.
Corn: Overnight (Monday into today), the DEC19 Corn contract is trading +8.75 cents at $4.2850 /bushel. Violent and wet weather continued over the long weekend and the planting delays continue.
Here’s a comment extracted from a post by Paul Allendale of Allendale, Inc.
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/futures-news/grains/2396575/strong-weekend-storms-continue-to-delay-planting
Crop progress report will be released today at 3 p.m. CST (4PM New York time). Traders are looking for corn planting at 63-65% complete (49% last week, 92% last year and 91% 5-year average). Soybean planting expected at 28-30% (19% last week, 77% last year and 62% 5-year average). Hard red Spring wheat planting at 86-87% (70% last week, 91% last year and 92% average).
Of course I want to see the progress report at 4PM today from USDA.
On “AgDay” this morning are some comments on the flooding and corn/soybean late planting:
Comments from Don: Clearly, there may be more upside to Corn prices. I hold a wait and see attitude, and will continue to stand aside in selling some CALL options far up and OTM on DEC19 Corn futures. I suspect there will be a lot of new this week on the flooding. I’ll try to bring some of those report here to the website and/or provide links for you. The next WASDE monthly comes out Tuesday, June 11, 2019 at: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
Farmer’s have some tough decisions to make. Stipulations on crop insurance have ‘must plant’ dates when farmers must choose which payment plant works best for them – and they are placed in a position to speculate on what will happen. Following the corn fundamentals is tough when none of us know what bushels/acre (yield) will be, how many acres will be planted, and how many of those will be harvested. I’ll be watching my
Energy and Gold: Hardly anyone expects a sudden break-through with China/USA trade talks/negotiations. The $US Dollar is strong today dropping Gold prices another few dollars, the OCT19 Gold trading near 1289.10 this morning. I continue to shop for positions in these this week. At the moment, neither crude oil or gold seems to have a clear direction; I suspect this will be the trading this week.
I want to keep patience this week and to remember my job is find “where prices won’t go”, instead of trying to guess where they will go. I am shopping opportunities with crude and gold this week. – Don
Don A. Singletary
The commentary and examples are for teaching purposes only and are not intended to be a trading or trade advisory service. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein on the web site and/or newsletter, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Trading with leverage could lead to greater loss than your initial deposit. Trade at your own risk. Investors and traders are responsible for their own investment/trading decisions including entries, exits, position, sizing and use of stops or lack thereof. This is not a trade advisory service and is for educational purposes only. The content on the pages here is believed to be reliable - but we cannot guarantee it.
Greetings:
NEW TRADE TODAY: closing purchase NOV19 1100 and 1200 strike CALLS.
Soybeans: Beans are likely to follow the corn market up and that does not bode well for my short NOV19 short calls at both the 1100 and 1200 strikes. I feel I have little to gain by risking weather induced crop low yield and will exit these positions today. It will likely be possible to sell HIGHER strikes at a later date and at that time, I’ll have better information on plantings and crop conditions. I’ll put up a post later today or tomorrow with details. My logic is that it might become difficulty (too risky) told these positions and there are better positions available later.
To be clear: I am exiting both my NOV19 1100-strike and 1200 strike CALLS this morning.
Corn: Overnight (Monday into today), the DEC19 Corn contract is trading +8.75 cents at $4.2850 /bushel. Violent and wet weather continued over the long weekend and the planting delays continue.
Here’s a comment extracted from a post by Paul Allendale of Allendale, Inc.
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/futures-news/grains/2396575/strong-weekend-storms-continue-to-delay-planting
Comments from Don: Clearly, there may be more upside to Corn prices. I hold a wait and see attitude, and will continue to stand aside in selling some CALL options far up and OTM on DEC19 Corn futures. I suspect there will be a lot of new this week on the flooding. I’ll try to bring some of those report here to the website and/or provide links for you. The next WASDE monthly comes out Tuesday, June 11, 2019 at: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
Farmer’s have some tough decisions to make. Stipulations on crop insurance have ‘must plant’ dates when farmers must choose which payment plant works best for them – and they are placed in a position to speculate on what will happen. Following the corn fundamentals is tough when none of us know what bushels/acre (yield) will be, how many acres will be planted, and how many of those will be harvested. I’ll be watching my
Energy and Gold: Hardly anyone expects a sudden break-through with China/USA trade talks/negotiations. The $US Dollar is strong today dropping Gold prices another few dollars, the OCT19 Gold trading near 1289.10 this morning. I continue to shop for positions in these this week. At the moment, neither crude oil or gold seems to have a clear direction; I suspect this will be the trading this week.
I want to keep patience this week and to remember my job is find “where prices won’t go”, instead of trying to guess where they will go. I am shopping opportunities with crude and gold this week. – Don
Don A. Singletary
The commentary and examples are for teaching purposes only and are not intended to be a trading or trade advisory service. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein on the web site and/or newsletter, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Trading with leverage could lead to greater loss than your initial deposit. Trade at your own risk. Investors and traders are responsible for their own investment/trading decisions including entries, exits, position, sizing and use of stops or lack thereof. This is not a trade advisory service and is for educational purposes only. The content on the pages here is believed to be reliable - but we cannot guarantee it.