Corn: The USDA weekly Crop Progress report came out yesterday on schedule. You can download it free at this LINK. You may recall from posts here over the last few months that this corn crop had late planting due to the spring floods. Everyone has been guessing this season how much that will/might affect the yield. I circled a few figures in RED in the illustration below; you can see that maturity of this new crop is down considerably from last year, the 2014-2018 average – and only up to 93% versus last week’s report of 86%. DEC19 Corn futures at midday today steady at 384.50. This report may have given some amount to price support but there’s been no significant change after yesterday’s USDA report. So watch the next crop progress report coming up Monday, and the next (more important) WASDE (World Supply-Demand Projections) coming up at Noon Eastern Time, Friday, the 8th of November. A significantly higher yield production or a reduction in harvest acres – in this WASDE could boost Corn prices. If I can get out of my short DEC19 Corn 420-strike CALLs with something close to a penny ($50) profit in each, I may do so prior to the WASDE on 8th NOV. By the way, the DEC19 420 options expires in only 24 days. I expect the WASDE to reduce production a bit but probably not a huge amount. I can’t be sure, and this is what has prompted my thoughts on getting out before then.
MORE COMMENTS SCROLL DOWN PAST CURRENT POSITIONS PLEASE:
Summary of my current positions as of TUESDAY- 29 OCT 2019:
FYI: You may click the gold-colored Trade Origination button to see the original post on the date the trade was placed.
Crude Oil FEB20 short strangle, the 80 CALL and 35 PUT
Short Corn DEC19 short 420-strike CALL
Short the Gold FEB20 1900-strike CALL for 1.9 ($190).
Crude Oil: I am short the 80C/35P strangles on FEB20 Crude Oil and collected $330 premium. Nothing of import happening with crude right now, so I’m holding the position and letting time decay do its thing. Go Theta! (see chart below.)
Gold: There is profit in the short FEB20 gold 1900-CALL and without some mass failure in the stock market, this one should stay well out of range. With the Stocks near all-time highs anything can happen of course. The conservative thing would be to take a nice profit on this short CALL and not risk it. If the DJIA crashes big time (even if only temporarily), it could take current profit and have me holding the position in a more precarious situation. I’m giving thought to take the profits due to that.
That gold 1900 CALL is pretty far OTM as I look at the chart. Those are my positions and thoughts for today. Thank you. If you have any questions or comments, just email me at Don@WriteThisDown.com
Have a great week. – Don
PS: I just published a new book this week that is all about the new CME Micro Stock Index Futures and Day Trading them. Most of the readers here are experienced traders, so I want to point out that this new book is written for BEGINNERS, and those with a full understanding of futures trading might not learn much from this book -as it is written for people with no experience trading futures. The book presents ONLY day trading the new micro contracts ($5 a point for S&P500 Stock Index micro futures and only $2 a point trading the new micro NASDAQ100 stock index futures.) Oh, the DJIA average micros trade at only 50-cents a point! In the book, I suggest the beginners use candlesticks at 5 minute intervals, volume bars, and a standard bottom display of MACD. The day trading margins are only around $650 per contract, and most commissions are around 85 cents, which make them ideal for NEW futures stock index traders. They won’t have to have a large account or take large risks to learn how to trade them. The book has this table in it to help new traders make a trading plan:
The book probably won’t teach much to the readers of this newsletter, but when I saw how affordable it is now to LEARN to trade futures this way, I had to write this book for beginners. So if you know someone interested in this sort of thing, please have them check it out on Amazon at this link: http://bit.ly/daytrademicros It’s priced at $24.97 w/free prime shipping. There is also a link up to Amazon’s listing at a public website here: http://DayTradingMicros.com/new-book/
Here’s the symbols and increment values of the 4 new contracts. – have fun. Maybe you can make some lunch money with them. In the book, I tell the story of how I lost a whole week’s pay in 60 seconds in my first commodity trade with the S&P500 Index. I was a school teacher then and it was a lot of money to me at the time. That is the reason I have such empathy for futures trading beginners. I’m really excited now to present this way for people to learn to trade without having to take such high risks… and that is my intended audience for this new book. Thanks – Don
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