04 February 2019 Trading Activity today: newsletter
February 4, 2019
I made a closing purchase and bought back the short CLJ19 Crude Oil 35-=strike PUT at 0.01 ($10) Profit: $50 each.
I made a closing purchase and bought back the short APR19 1600-strike Gold CALL at 0.10 ($10) Profit: $50 each.
I entered a GTC (good til canceled order) to buy back the short JUN19 Crude Oil 30-strike PUT at 0.02 ($20)
New position today: I sold the JUL19 Corn 360-strike PUT for 3.125 cents ( a credit of $156.25)
Also, the GTC order I hadto make a closing purchase of the Apr19 Crude Oil 70-strike CALL at 0.04 was filled on Friday, February 1, 2019. Profit: $140 each.
Here is the one NEW trade position today, the short JUL19 360-strike PUT:
New Trade Position: Sell JUL19 Corn 360-strike PUT for 3.125 cents
Date placed: 04FEB19
Proceeds from option $156.25 (not incl commissions cost) Probability option expires OTM: 83% Buying Power effect: $329.50 137 Days until expiration (20JUN2019)
My Current Position Summary as of today 04FEB2019:
Short the JUN19 Crude Oil 70-strike CALL at 0.420 ($420)
Short the JUN19 Crude Oil 30-strike PUT at 0.08 ($80) GTC entered to close @ 0.02 is outstanding
Short the JUN19 Gold 1550-strike CALL for 1.10 cents ($110)
Short the MAY19 Corn 360-strike PUT at 3.375 ($168.25)
New Trade Today: Short the JUL19 Corn 360-strike PUT at 3.125 ($156.25)
Note: I always use examples with a quantity of 1 (one) option per trade. This is not because I only trade one of each option, it is to keep the illustrations simple and easy to understand in the newsletter. Please remember the strategies of the trades I post here are risky, and not suitable for all traders. Posts here are for educational purposes only.
Comments for today 04 FEB 2019:
I closed some trades today in order to bank some profits and not risk giving them back. This also means I can now shop for more trades (perhaps similar ones).
The new trade today, selling the JUL19 360-strike Corn PUT, reflects my bullish perspective on the Corn market. This trade is in harmony with the seasonal pattern as I have mentioned. Also the fundamental market setup is bullish and it is my opinion that even though this 360 JUL19 PUT only has an 83% chance of expiring worthless (prob OTM), the fundamental set up and seasonal pattern (not reflected in the Prob. OTM) will support the trade. The “Prob. OTM” is computed by using just the math of the underlying’s volatility, the distance between the underlying price and the strike, and the time until expiration – and so is a math function NOT based on the fundamentals (of the Corn.) My market view is that the fundamentals (supply-demand, etc.) likely give this trade better odds than only 83%.
If you have any comments or questions, just email me. That is all for today. Thank you – Don
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